Back to Agile Estimation

Probabilistic Forecasting

5 minutes 5 Questions

Probabilistic Forecasting is a technique used in Agile estimation to predict the number of tasks or user stories that can be completed within a specified timeframe based on historical data and trends. This forecasting approach combines multiple probability distributions showing different possible o…

Test mode:
Start practice test
Agile Project Management - Probabilistic Forecasting Example Questions

Test your knowledge of Probabilistic Forecasting

Question 1

A project manager wants to use probabilistic forecasting for estimating the completion date of their Agile project. The team has historical data from previous projects as reference. How should the project manager approach this?

Correct Answer: Calculate the range of possible completion dates using historical data and assign probabilities based on occurrences

Probabilistic forecasting uses data and uncertainties to model a range of possible outcomes. By using the historical data to calculate the range and assigning probabilities to those outcomes, the project manager is considering both the data and uncertainties to produce a more reliable estimate.

Question 2

Your Agile project has reached a critical phase. Due to market pressure, your senior management wants to know the likelihood of your project being completed within the next month. What should you do to respond?

Correct Answer: Utilize probabilistic forecasting, taking into account uncertainties and various possible execution scenarios

Probabilistic forecasting accounts for uncertainties and can provide management with a more accurate representation of the likelihood of completing the project within a given timeframe. It takes into account various scenarios and execution paths, providing a probabilistic range for the completion date.

Question 3

Your team is halfway through the project, and stakeholders have asked you for an updated forecast of its completion. Based on the current progress, which forecasting method would you use?

Correct Answer: Probabilistic forecasting considering new uncertainties and the initial forecast

Probabilistic forecasting factoring in new uncertainties and your initial forecast gives a more reliable updated estimate. By evaluating the progress at the halfway point and incorporating uncertainties, it accounts for changes in project scope or conditions during execution.

More Probabilistic Forecasting questions
2 questions (total)
Start 2 question test