Estimation Techniques

5 minutes 5 Questions

Estimation techniques are used in Agile Release Planning to predict the amount of effort required to complete various tasks and user stories. Two common estimation techniques are Planning Poker and T-shirt sizing. Planning Poker is a consensus-based estimation technique where team members individually assign ‘points’ to a user story using a deck of cards, and then discuss their estimates and come to an agreement on the final estimation. T-shirt sizing involves assigning a size category (i.e., small, medium, large, or extra-large) to each task or user story, based on the relative effort and complexity. These estimation techniques are essential for designing realistic release plans and ensuring that work is evenly distributed across iterations.

Guide to Estimation Techniques for Agile Release Planning

Estimation techniques are essential in agile project management and specifically in agile release planning.

What are Estimation Techniques and why are they important?
Estimation techniques are used by teams to forecast the amount of work that can be accomplished in a sprint or release. They are important because they help plan the project timeline, allocate resources, and predict project costs.

How do Estimation Techniques work?
Some popular estimation techniques used in agile project management include Planning Poker, T-Shirt Sizes, Dot Voting, The Bucket System, and Affinity Mapping. Each method might be suitable for different situations or teams. Generally, these techniques involve the entire team to foster transparency and collective decision-making.

Exam Tip: Answering Questions on Estimation Techniques
When answering questions on estimation techniques, it's crucial to:
- Understand the different estimation techniques and their purposes.
- Be aware of the advantages and potential drawbacks of each technique.
- Know how and when to apply each technique in the context of a given scenario in the exam.
Be sure to carefully read the question and understand what is being asked. In many cases, you may be asked to apply your understanding of these techniques to specific situations. Use relevant examples and be concise in your answers.

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Question 1

A project manager wants to estimate the duration of a project that includes both high risk, low risk, and average risk activities. Which estimation technique would be most suitable?

Three-point estimation Analogous estimation Bottom-up estimation Parametric estimation

Correct Answer: Three-point estimation

The Three-point estimation technique is the most suitable for this situation as it takes into account all possible scenarios i.e. worst-case, most likely, and best case, which aligns with having high risk, low risk, and average risk activities. Analogous estimation, as the other suggested method, is based on the comparison between the current project and similar past projects. It doesn't differentiate between levels of risk in individual activities, thus is not the best choice in this scenarioParametric estimation uses statistical data and specific parameters from previous similar projects for reasoning. While it could be useful, it does not consider risk variations like the three-point estimation and thus is not best suited in this caseFinally, the Bottom-up estimation, where every single task is broken down and estimated individually, this could be an effective way for smaller projects but not in this scenario. The time and efforts required for Bottom-up estimation on a project with varying levels of risk might outweigh the benefits. Hence, three-point estimation is the best choice.

Question 2

A project manager is overseeing a project that involves crafting a series of custom-made furniture. Each piece of furniture has unique specifications and designs, making it hard to predict the exact amount of time needed. What estimation technique would be best to use in this case?

Parametric Estimating Analogous Estimating Bottom-up Estimating Three-point Estimating

Correct Answer: Three-point Estimating

Three-point estimating is the best technique for such unpredictable projects because it considers the most optimistic, most pessimistic, and most likely scenarios to arrive at a better schedule estimation. The alternative, parametric estimating, relies heavily on statistical relationships between previous data and other variables, making it unsuitable for unique custom-made furniture projects. Analogous estimating, on the other hand, relies on historical data from similar projects, but each piece of furniture here has unique designs and specifications making this method inaccurate. Finally, Bottom-up estimating starts by estimating the smallest individual elements and summing them together, this could be impractical for projects with unique specifications for each piece as it may require more time to analyze each element and may still result in incorrect estimates.

Question 3

A project manager is working on the design phase of a construction project. They need to estimate the cost of each activity. Which estimation technique should they use?

Parametric Estimating Three-point Estimating Bottom-Up Estimating Expert Judgement Analogous Estimating Delphi Technique

Correct Answer: Bottom-Up Estimating

Bottom-Up Estimating is the most appropriate technique for this situation, as it allows the project manager to create detailed estimates for each activity, which can then be aggregated to estimate the overall cost.

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