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PERT Estimating

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The Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) is a statistical tool used in project management to represent tasks or activities and their relationships. A PERT estimate is calculated as (Optimistic + (4 X Most Likely) + Pessimistic) / 6. This technique is useful when activities do not follow t…

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CAPM - PERT Estimating Example Questions

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Question 1

You're managing a project with an optimistic time of 10 days, a pessimistic time of 20 days, and a most likely time of 15 days. How will you calculate the PERT estimate?

Correct Answer: 15 days

To calculate the PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) estimate, we use a weighted average of the optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely time estimates. The formula for the PERT estimate is: PERT Estimate = (Optimistic + 4 × Most Likely + Pessimistic) ÷ 6 Given: Optimistic time (O): 10 days Pessimistic time (P): 20 days Most likely time (M): 15 days Let's calculate the PERT estimate: PERT Estimate = (O + 4M + P) ÷ 6 = (10 + 4 × 15 + 20) ÷ 6 = (10 + 60 + 20) ÷ 6 = 90 ÷ 6 = 15 days Therefore, the PERT estimate for the project is 15 days. This estimate takes into account the optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely time estimates, giving more weight to the most likely estimate (4 times as much as the optimistic and pessimistic estimates).

Question 2

You're leading a marketing campaign project. The optimistic time estimate is 4 weeks, pessimistic is 10 weeks and the most likely time is 5 weeks. What should be the PERT estimate?

Correct Answer: 5.67 weeks

The PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) estimate is calculated using the following formula: PERT estimate = (optimistic time + 4 * most likely time + pessimistic time) / 6. So, substituting in the actual figures given, (4 weeks + 4*5 weeks + 10 weeks) / 6 equals to 5.67 weeks. Hence, the PERT estimate would be 5.67 weeks. All other answers are incorrect as they do not accurately follow the formula for PERT estimation.

Question 3

You are the project manager for a construction project. The optimistic time is 12 weeks, the pessimistic time is 20 weeks, and the most likely time is 16 weeks. What is the PERT estimate for this project?

Correct Answer: 16.33 weeks

The PERT Estimate calculation is given by (Optimistic Time + 4(Most Likely Time) + Pessimistic Time) / 6. In this scenario, the Optimistic Time is 12 weeks, the Most Likely Time is 16 weeks, and the Pessimistic Time is 20 weeks. So, the calculation would be (12 weeks + 4(16 weeks) + 20 weeks) / 6. The result is 16.33 weeks. So, the correct answer is 16.33 weeks. The other answers are incorrect because they are not the result of the PERT Estimate calculation for the given Optimistic, Most Likely, and Pessimistic times.

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