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Three-Point Estimating Estimation Techniques

Importance:
Three-point estimating is a crucial technique in project management that allows for more accurate estimations by considering and analyzing the potential variation in a task's effort and duration. It helps in risk management by providing a comprehensive view of potential outcomes, enabling teams to prepare effectively.
What is Three-Point Estimating?
Three-point estimation is a technique used in project management for developing an estimate of a dependent variable, such as cost or time, considering the amount of variation. The model uses three types: the most likely (M), the optimistic (O), and the pessimistic (P) estimates.
How it Works:
This estimation works by calculating an average of three estimates: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic. These three estimates take into account the different factors that can impact the task's duration or cost. The formula for the estimation is TE = (O + 4M + P) / 6.
Answering Questions on an Exam:
When answering questions about three-point estimating during an exam, concentrate on understanding the problem, identify the O, M, P values given or can be derived, and use the formula to answer. Explain the reasoning as most exams value the understanding of the concept, not just the mathematical result.
Exam Tips:
1. Understand the formula, and remember the weights given to 'O', 'M', and 'P' in the formula2. Carefully read the question to discern the three roleplayers: the optimistic (O), most likely (M), and pessimistic (P) estimates3. Work out a number of different practice problems to solidify your understanding of how to identify the variables and apply them in the formula4. Always provide the reasoning behind your answer to demonstrate your understanding of the technique.

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Three-Point Estimating practice test

Three-point estimating is a technique that uses statistical analysis to arrive at a project estimate. It uses three estimates to define an approximate range for an activity’s cost: the most optimistic cost (best-case scenario), the most pessimistic cost (worst-case scenario) and a most likely cost scenario. Confidence levels and standard deviation are then used to create a probability distribution (usually a PERT distribution) for the overall project estimate.

Time: 5 minutes   Questions: 5

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