Estimating Activity Durations

Correct Answer: Parametric Estimating

Parametric Estimating is the most appropriate method because it uses statistical relationship between historical data and other variables to calculate an estimate for activity parameters such as cost, budget, and duration. In this case, the previous records of how long it took to sow seeds, grow, and harvest plants can be used to predict the duration of these activities for the new season. Three-Point Estimating, another estimating method, may not be suitable in this case because it requires uncertainty and risk into account for estimation. Analogous Estimating uses similar past projects to estimate the duration or cost of the current project, but is less accurate than Parametric Estimating. Finally, Monte Carlo Simulation is a technique that uses probability distributions and random sampling to calculate possible outcomes, which may not be necessary in this context given the availability of detailed historical data from the horticulture project.

Correct Answer: Three-point estimation

Three-point estimation is the most suitable technique for handling a mix of fixed and variable duration activities in a project.

This method allows for flexibility in estimating by considering three scenarios: optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic estimates. For fixed duration activities, all three estimates might be the same or very close, while for variable activities, there could be a wider range.

Three-point estimation accounts for uncertainty and variability, making it ideal for projects with mixed activity types. It provides a more accurate overall project estimate by considering the potential range of durations for variable activities.

Parametric estimation using standard deviations is less suitable as it relies on historical data and may not account for the unique aspects of each activity.

The Delphi technique with expert judgment can be useful but may be too time-consuming and complex for routine project estimation, especially when some activities have fixed durations.

Bottom-up estimation with contingency reserves is a good approach for detailed estimates but doesn't inherently account for the variability in activity durations as effectively as three-point estimation.

Correct Answer: Expert Judgement

The best answer is 'Expert Judgement' as you are managing a project in a field where you have extensive experience and understand the tasks and their duration. Expert judgement utilizes the expertise of an individual or a group of individuals to assess the situation, and in this case, that's your role. 'Parametric Estimating' is incorrect because it uses statistical modeling and historical data to calculate an estimate, which is not necessary if you already understand the tasks and their duration. 'Three-point Estimating' is also incorrect because it uses optimistic, pessimistic, and most likely estimates to calculate an overall estimate, which again isn't necessary due to your extensive experience and understanding. 'Analogous Estimating' is incorrect because it uses a similar past project to estimate the duration and cost of the current project. This method is generally less accurate than other methods and is not suitable if you already have a thorough understanding of the tasks.