Wideband Delphi

5 minutes 5 Questions

Incorporated into Agile from the world of manufacturing, the Wideband Delphi technique calls upon the use of multiple rounds of assessment to arrive at an estimate. Originally created by the RAND Corporation, it is designed to encourage conversation and collaboration when it comes to estimating. Th…

Guide on Wideband Delphi: Importance, Functioning, and Exam Tips

What is Wideband Delphi?

Developed by the RAND Corporation, the Wideband Delphi technique is a project estimation method widely used in Agile project management and systems engineering. It incorporates the perspective of multiple experts in order to forecast realistic timelines and budgets.

Significance of Wideband Delphi:

The primary advantage of this technique is that it reduces human error and bias. By involving a variety of experts, the Wideband Delphi method ensures a diverse range of inputs, increasing the chances of obtaining a comprehensive and accurate estimation. Furthermore, it promotes communication and collaboration among team members, encouraging consensus on various matters.

How it Functions:

There are typically four stages to this process. In stage one, the coordinator presents a problem to the experts independently. Secondly, the experts submit their estimates anonymously. In the third stage, the coordinator collates these estimates. Finally, the experts review this aggregated data and re-estimate until a consensus is reached. This repetitive process, known as 'iteration', helps to refine and enhance the precision of the final estimate.

Exam Tips - Answering Questions on Wideband Delphi:

1. Familiarize with the technique: Understand the process, importance, and advantages of the Wideband Delphi technique. Don't confuse it with other estimation techniques.

2. Know the steps: Grasp the step-by-step process of this estimation technique and the significance of each step.

3. Focus on iteration: Examiners often focus on the iterative nature of Wideband Delphi - remember that estimates are refined before consensus arrives.

4. Understand coordinator's role: The coordinator's role is crucial in this process. Be sure to understand how a coordinator collates estimates and leads the consensus process.

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Question 1

In a Wideband Delphi estimation process, the project manager receives varying estimates from different experts. What should the project manager do to improve the accuracy of these estimates?

Select the lowest estimate to be more optimistic. Ask new experts for additional estimates. Allow experts to modify the project scope to align with their estimates. Average out the estimates and use the result as the final estimate. Discard outlier estimates and use the most conservative estimate. Hold a meeting for experts to discuss their assumptions and revise their estimates based on the discussion.

Correct Answer: Hold a meeting for experts to discuss their assumptions and revise their estimates based on the discussion.

The correct answer is to hold a meeting for experts to discuss their assumptions and revise their estimates based on the discussion. This approach allows the experts to learn from each other and refine their estimates, increasing the accuracy of the final estimate.

Question 2

Which of the following best describes the role of a moderator in the Wideband Delphi estimation process?

To provide final estimates for the project To challenge the expert opinions and act as a devil's advocate To be the single decision-maker for choosing the best estimate To reveal the identities of experts who provided specific estimates To play an honorary role in the estimation process, with no real action To facilitate the discussion and manage the estimation rounds

Correct Answer: To facilitate the discussion and manage the estimation rounds

The role of a moderator in the Wideband Delphi estimation process is to facilitate the discussion and manage the estimation rounds. They ensure that the rounds progress smoothly, allowing experts to refine their estimates through anonymous feedback and discussion.

Question 3

In implementing Wideband Delphi, what crucial aspect should be emphasized to improve the accuracy of estimates?

Single-round estimation Iterative refinement Consensus without iteration Unanimous agreement on first estimates

Correct Answer: Iterative refinement

In the Wideband Delphi technique, a crucial aspect that should be emphasized to improve the accuracy of estimates is 'Iterative refinement'. This process involves multiple rounds of estimation, where the estimators revise their estimates after discussing the assumptions and rationale behind their initial estimates. The goal is to converge towards a more accurate and consensus-based estimate. On the contrary, 'Single-round estimation' does not allow for this iterative refinement and discussion, which leads to less accurate estimates as it does not capitalize on the collective insights of the team. 'Consensus without iteration' and 'Unanimous agreement on first estimates' miss the critical point that initial estimates are often based on incomplete information and assumptions, and without iterative refinement and discussion, these initial estimates are unlikely to be accurate. Therefore, emphasizing iterative refinement is key to leveraging the group's collective knowledge and experience to refine and improve accuracy in estimates.

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