Assumptions Analysis
Assumptions Analysis is a qualitative risk assessment technique that involves examining the validity of the assumptions and constraints identified during project planning. Projects are often based on various assumptions about resources, timelines, technologies, stakeholder behaviors, and external conditions. These assumptions, if inaccurate or invalidated, can significantly impact project objectives, leading to risks that may not have been initially apparent. In the context of qualitative risk analysis, Assumptions Analysis systematically explores each assumption to determine its stability, reliability, and potential impact on the project. This process helps identify risks associated with assumptions that are uncertain, unstable, or subject to change. By scrutinizing what is taken for granted, project teams can uncover hidden risks, challenge optimistic projections, and prepare contingency plans. The analysis involves listing all project assumptions, evaluating their sensitivity to change, and assessing how variations might affect project outcomes. It also examines the interdependencies between assumptions and other project elements. This technique encourages critical thinking and proactive management by prompting project teams to question the basis of their planning and consider alternative scenarios. Assumptions Analysis contributes to a more realistic project plan and enhances risk preparedness. By understanding which assumptions carry significant risk, project managers can prioritize monitoring efforts, allocate resources for risk mitigation, and communicate uncertainties to stakeholders effectively. This proactive approach reduces the likelihood of unexpected issues arising from unexamined or invalidated assumptions, ultimately supporting the successful delivery of the project.
Assumptions Analysis in Project Risk Management
What is Assumptions Analysis?
Assumptions Analysis is a systematic technique used in project risk management to identify, document, validate, and assess the accuracy and uncertainty of project assumptions. An assumption is anything considered to be true, correct, or certain without empirical proof or demonstration.
Why is Assumptions Analysis Important?
Assumptions Analysis is crucial because:
1. Unverified assumptions pose risks - When assumptions are incorrect, they can lead to significant project issues.
2. Exposes hidden risks - By examining assumptions critically, teams can identify risks that might otherwise remain hidden.
3. Foundation for decision-making - Project decisions are often based on assumptions; understanding their validity improves decision quality.
4. Enhances stakeholder alignment - Makes implicit assumptions explicit so all stakeholders share understanding.
How Assumptions Analysis Works
The process typically involves these steps:
1. Identify assumptions - Gather all documented and undocumented assumptions from project documentation, stakeholders, and team members.
2. Document assumptions - Record assumptions clearly in an assumptions log or register.
3. Analyze validity - Assess each assumption's accuracy and stability:
• How certain are we this assumption is correct?
• What evidence supports this assumption?
• What would happen if this assumption proves false?
4. Classify by risk level - Categorize assumptions based on:
• Stability (likelihood to change)
• Impact if incorrect
• Certainty level
5. Develop response strategies - Create action plans for high-risk assumptions:
• Validate through research or testing
• Create contingency plans
• Convert assumptions to constraints where possible
Techniques Used in Assumptions Analysis
• Root cause analysis - Tracing assumptions to their origins
• Delphi technique - Using expert judgment to evaluate assumptions
• Constraint analysis - Examining the relationship between assumptions and project constraints
• Scenario analysis - Testing what happens if assumptions prove incorrect
• Documentation reviews - Reviewing project artifacts to identify stated and implied assumptions
Exam Tips: Answering Questions on Assumptions Analysis
1. Know the definition precisely - Understand that Assumptions Analysis is about identifying and validating the accuracy of assumptions that could affect project outcomes.
2. Recognize its place in processes - Assumptions Analysis is a key tool in Identify Risks process but may also appear in other risk management processes.
3. Understand its relationship with risk - Remember that assumptions with high uncertainty represent project risks.
4. Focus on the systematic approach - Emphasize the structured process of identifying, documenting, and validating assumptions.
5. Connect with other techniques - Know how Assumptions Analysis relates to other risk identification techniques like document reviews and expert judgment.
6. Be aware of common exam traps - Pay attention to questions that might confuse Assumptions Analysis with constraint analysis or requirements gathering.
7. Application scenarios - Practice applying the concept to different project scenarios to recognize when and how Assumptions Analysis should be used.
8. Output recognition - Be able to identify what proper documentation of assumptions and their analysis should include.
For the PMI-RMP exam, focus on understanding how Assumptions Analysis contributes to comprehensive risk identification and how it helps convert uncertainty into defined project risks that can be managed effectively.
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