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Delphi Technique

5 minutes 5 Questions

The Delphi Technique is a structured, iterative process used to gather expert opinions and achieve consensus on complex issues, such as risk identification and assessment in projects. It involves a panel of experts who anonymously respond to questionnaires in multiple rounds. After each round, a facilitator summarizes the responses and provides feedback to the experts. This process continues until a consensus is reached. In the context of risk identification, the Delphi Technique allows project managers to tap into the expertise of specialists who may be geographically dispersed or prefer anonymity due to the sensitive nature of risks. The anonymity reduces the influence of dominant individuals and minimizes bias, promoting honest and uninfluenced feedback. It is particularly useful when dealing with uncertain, ambiguous, or highly specialized risks that require expert judgment. The process begins by selecting a panel of experts relevant to the project's domain. In the first round, experts are asked open-ended questions to elicit their perceptions of potential risks. The facilitator compiles the responses, identifies common themes, and formulates more focused questions for the next round. Subsequent rounds aim to refine the list of risks, seeking to narrow down and prioritize them based on likelihood and impact. The Delphi Technique is beneficial for its ability to distill a broad range of expert insights into actionable risk information. It helps in uncovering risks that may not be apparent through traditional identification methods. However, it can be time-consuming and requires careful design and facilitation to maintain participant engagement across multiple rounds.

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PMI-RMP - Risk Identification Techniques Example Questions

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Question 1

If two experts in a Delphi Technique implementation provide drastically opposing views in their responses, what is the most appropriate action to take?

Correct Answer: Include both perspectives in the summary and request all participants to evaluate these contrasting viewpoints

The most appropriate action when experts provide drastically opposing views in a Delphi Technique is to include both perspectives and have all participants evaluate these contrasting viewpoints. This approach is optimal because: 1. It maintains transparency in the process by presenting all significant viewpoints 2. It leverages collective wisdom by allowing all participants to evaluate the contrasting positions 3. It stays true to the Delphi Technique's core principle of achieving consensus through iterative feedback 4. It prevents the facilitator from introducing bias by attempting to reconcile opposing views personally The other options are less appropriate because: Scheduling additional rounds specifically for opposing views deviates from the standard Delphi process and may create unnecessary focus on disagreement. Analyzing statistical variance and requesting revisions based on mean scores oversimplifies the complexity of expert opinions and may force artificial convergence. Contacting experts individually and merging perspectives undermines the anonymous nature of the Delphi Technique and risks introducing facilitator bias in the interpretation.

Question 2

In a Delphi Technique application, what is the recommended approach when experts consistently provide detailed qualitative comments alongside their numerical ratings?

Correct Answer: Integrate the qualitative insights with statistical summaries to enrich subsequent rounds

The best practice in Delphi Technique is to integrate qualitative insights with statistical summaries to enrich subsequent rounds. This approach: - Maximizes the value of expert input by utilizing both quantitative and qualitative data - Creates a more comprehensive understanding of the subject matter - Maintains the richness of expert knowledge while preserving statistical validity - Aligns with the core purpose of Delphi Technique to gather complete expert opinions The other options are incorrect because: - Limiting experts to only numerical ratings loses valuable context and depth of expertise - Analyzing qualitative comments separately defeats the purpose of iterative refinement in the Delphi process - Creating a separate feedback loop for narratives complicates the process unnecessarily and may reduce the synergy between quantitative and qualitative insights The Delphi Technique's strength lies in its ability to combine various forms of expert input to reach consensus, making the integration of both numerical and qualitative data essential for optimal results.

Question 3

Which outcome would typically signal a successful conclusion of the Delphi Technique process?

Correct Answer: A clear convergence of expert opinions with minimal variation

The Delphi Technique aims to reach consensus among experts through multiple rounds of structured communication. The most successful outcome is when expert opinions converge with minimal variation, indicating a natural agreement has been reached through the iterative process. A convergence of opinions with minimal variation demonstrates that the experts have moved toward a shared understanding and agreement through the multiple rounds of feedback and revision. The other options are incorrect because: - A comprehensive report with statistical analysis is a documentation method, not a success indicator of the process itself - Complete unanimity on every aspect is an unrealistic goal and not necessary for the Delphi Technique to be successful - Having senior experts validate previous responses contradicts the core principle of the Delphi Technique, which values equal input from all qualified experts

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