Expert Judgment

5 minutes 5 Questions

Expert Judgment is a technique used in project management for estimating activity durations by leveraging the knowledge and experience of individuals or groups with specialized expertise. These experts may be team members, consultants, stakeholders, or anyone who has significant experience with similar projects or activities. The use of Expert Judgment is particularly valuable when there is limited historical data or when the project involves new or complex activities that are difficult to estimate using quantitative methods. Experts apply their understanding of industry standards, best practices, and lessons learned from past projects to provide informed estimates for activity durations. To utilize Expert Judgment effectively, project managers can conduct interviews, hold workshops, or use Delphi techniques, where a series of questionnaires are sent to experts, and their responses are aggregated and shared among the group. This collaborative approach helps in refining estimates and achieving consensus. One of the main benefits of Expert Judgment is the depth of insight that experienced professionals can bring to the estimation process. They can identify potential risks, constraints, and opportunities that might not be apparent through analytical methods alone. Their intuition and professional judgment can significantly enhance the accuracy of the estimates. However, reliance on Expert Judgment also has its challenges. Estimates may be subjective and can vary widely between experts. To mitigate this, it is important to involve multiple experts and to document the assumptions and reasoning behind their estimates. This documentation can be valuable for future reference and for validating the estimates during the project execution. In conclusion, Expert Judgment is a qualitative estimation technique that relies on the specialized knowledge of experienced individuals. It is especially useful when quantitative data is scarce, and it can provide valuable insights that improve the accuracy of activity duration estimates.

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PMI-SP - Estimating Activity Durations Example Questions

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Question 1

Expert judgment is utilized in a complex telecommunications project to evaluate multiple vendor proposals. What should be the primary evaluation method for the project team?

Question 2

During a project planning meeting, the project team has reached an impasse regarding the next steps to progress the project due to conflicting expert opinions. What is the best course of action to resolve this situation?

Question 3

A project manager has been assigned to a complex project that requires expertise not available within the organization. What would be the most appropriate step to utilize expert judgment in assisting with project planning?

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