Schedule Risk Management

Correct Answer: Develop alternative resource allocation scenarios and analyze their impact on the schedule

Developing alternative resource allocation scenarios and analyzing their impact on the schedule is the most effective approach to handling resource constraints because: 1. It provides a proactive and analytical approach to resource management 2. It allows for the evaluation of multiple solutions before implementation 3. It helps identify the most efficient resource distribution patterns 4. It maintains flexibility while addressing constraints 5. It aligns with PMI's best practices for schedule risk management Why other approaches are less effective: Creating multiple schedules with varying durations focuses only on time aspects and doesn't address the core resource constraint issues. Adding buffer time to activities is a reactive approach that may lead to unnecessary schedule padding and doesn't solve the underlying resource allocation problems. Implementing mandatory overtime is not a sustainable solution and can lead to: - Decreased productivity - Higher costs - Team burnout - Potential quality issues - Negative impact on team morale

Correct Answer: Run multiple Monte Carlo simulations with triangular distributions

Monte Carlo simulation with triangular distributions is the most reliable method for determining milestone probability because: 1. It accounts for project complexity by running hundreds or thousands of iterations 2. It considers the interdependencies between activities 3. It provides statistical confidence levels for various completion dates 4. It can incorporate multiple schedule scenarios and risk factors Why other approaches are less effective: Critical path with historical variance is too simplistic for complex projects and doesn't account for multiple path interactions. Delphi technique relies solely on expert judgment and lacks the mathematical rigor needed for complex probability calculations. PERT analysis, while useful, uses only one probability distribution (beta) and doesn't account for correlation between activities or multiple critical paths as effectively as Monte Carlo simulation.

Correct Answer: Critical Path Analysis with three-point duration estimates

Critical Path Analysis with three-point duration estimates is the most effective technique for schedule risk assessment when evaluating concurrent delays. This approach is superior because: 1. Three-point estimation (optimistic, most likely, pessimistic) provides a realistic range of possible durations 2. It accounts for uncertainty and variability in activity durations 3. It enables probabilistic analysis of completion dates 4. It helps identify the impact of concurrent delays through statistical analysis The other options are insufficient because: - Sequential path analysis focuses on resource optimization but does not adequately address concurrent delay impacts - Fixed duration estimates with buffer analysis lacks the probabilistic component needed for proper risk assessment - Network diagram evaluation with resource leveling primarily addresses resource constraints rather than schedule risk from concurrent delays Using three-point estimates in Critical Path Analysis provides the most comprehensive understanding of how concurrent delays might affect the project schedule, allowing for better risk management and more accurate completion date forecasts.