Quantitative Risk Analysis

Correct Answer: Monte Carlo simulation

Monte Carlo simulation is the technique in quantitative risk analysis that combines individual risk probabilities and impacts into an overall risk profile for the project. It works by running multiple simulations using a model of the project, with each simulation using randomly generated values for uncertain variables based on their probability distributions. This allows for the generation of a range of possible outcomes and their probabilities, providing an overall risk profile. Sensitivity analysis examines how project outcomes are affected by changes in a single variable, but doesn't combine multiple risks. Expected monetary value analysis calculates the average outcome when there are multiple possible scenarios, but doesn't provide an overall risk profile. Decision tree analysis maps out decisions and their possible consequences, but is used more for decision making under uncertainty rather than developing an overall project risk profile.

Correct Answer: Standard Deviation Method

The correct method for this scenario is the 'Standard Deviation Method', which is used to factor uncertainty into project schedule estimates. It not only helps to predict the time it will take to complete a task or project but also gives an estimate of the probability that the project duration will fall within a certain range around the mean. The other methods are not suited to this scenario. 'Schedule Comparison Bar Chart' is used for comparing planned vs actual project schedule, but not for statistical analysis. The 'Delphi Technique' is a forecasting method used to estimate future outcomes, but it is not specific to risk assessment related to project duration. 'Root Cause Identification' is used to determine the fundamental issues causing a problem, which is not relevant in understanding the probability of a project exceeding a certain duration.

Correct Answer: 3 days

The expected time delay due to this risk is calculated by multiplying the potential delay time by the probability of the risk occurring. In this case, a 10-day delay with a probability of 0.3 results in an expected delay of 3 days. The other answer options are incorrect because an option suggesting a delay of 10 days ignores the probability factor. Similarly, options suggesting 7 and 5 days seem to be arbitrary numbers without a base in the given data.