Velocity Simulation

5 minutes 5 Questions

Velocity Simulation serves to provide an understanding of one of Scrum’s primary metrics - 'Velocity'. It helps teams comprehend how their work-rate (measured in story points, person-hours, etc.) impacts the Product or Sprint Backlog completion. This measure offers both forecasting and hindsight in…

Guide: Understanding Velocity Simulation in Scrum

What is Velocity Simulation?
Velocity Simulation is a measure used in agile project management, particularly in Scrum, to predict the amount of work a team can achieve in a sprint. It is calculated by adding up the estimates of the work completed in the last several sprints and dividing it by the number of sprints, giving the average velocity.

Importance of Velocity Simulation:
Velocity Simulation is pivotal because it serves as a forecasting tool for future sprints, improving predictability and planning. Additionally, it allows the team to inspect and adapt its process over time by analyzing the variation in velocity.

How Velocity Simulation Works:
It tracks the completed user story points or any other chosen unit across sprints and calculates the average. This number is then used to predict the work that can be done in future sprints, assisting in sprint planning.

Exam Tips: Answering Questions on Velocity Simulation:
- Recall that it measures predictability, not team performance or productivity.
- It is calculated by averaging completed work over past sprints.
- Understand that a constant velocity allows for reliable predictions for upcoming sprints.
- Remember: the main idea is that velocity helps in inspection and adaptation
- Look for questions that ask about how to improve predictability or deal with volatility in estimates.
- Note: Velocity should never be used to compare teams!

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PSM I - Velocity Simulation Example Questions

Test your knowledge of Velocity Simulation

Question 1

The Scrum Team saw an increased velocity in the last sprint because a team member pulled in extra hours. How can a Scrum Master guide the team for future velocity planning?

Suggest to the team that they implement a buffer in their sprint planning to accommodate for potential increases in velocity, making a point that it's important to always expect improvement in efficiency and effectiveness through the inspection and adaption of work processes. Advise the team to reassess their Definition of Done to ensure it aligns with the increased velocity achieved. Encourage the team to break down user stories into smaller tasks in future sprints to create the impression of increased velocity. Recommend the team to understand the non-standard sprint velocity as a one-off event that is not sustainable or expected to be repeated.

Correct Answer: Recommend the team to understand the non-standard sprint velocity as a one-off event that is not sustainable or expected to be repeated.

The correct answer emphasizes the importance of realism in velocity expectations and planning. It is critical for a Scrum Master to ensure that the team’s velocity is sustainable and not dependent on factors such as overtime, which is not a reliable or healthy basis for sprint planning. The wrong answers mislead by suggesting manipulative or unsustainable practices like artificially breaking down tasks, altering definitions of quality, or planning for unrealistic improvements without considering the principles of sustainable pace and team capacity.

Question 2

The Scrum Team completed three sprints. The first and third sprint's velocity were 20 points, but the second sprint's velocity was only 10 points. How should the Scrum Master proceed with velocity calculations for the future sprints?

The Scrum Master should guide the team to adjust their Definition of Done to ensure that the velocity remains consistent across sprints, making planning more straightforward. The Scrum Master should advise the team to consider various factors affecting the velocity and to use a range of velocities for future sprints planning. The Scrum Master should instruct the team to calculate the geometric mean of the velocities of the past sprints and to use this sophisticated statistical method for more precise future sprint planning. The Scrum Master should recommend the team to always set future sprint goals based on the velocity of the most recently completed sprint, as it represents the current state of the team.

Correct Answer: The Scrum Master should advise the team to consider various factors affecting the velocity and to use a range of velocities for future sprints planning.

Velocity is a useful tool for forecasting, but it should be used as a guide rather than a strict rule. It’s important that the Scrum Master helps the team understand that many factors can influence velocity, and it’s more realistic to expect fluctuations rather than consistent numbers. The correct answer emphasizes a flexible approach to planning, using a range of velocities to account for variability. The wrong answers are misleading: one suggests using overly complex mathematics, another relies on potentially volatile recent data, and the last one wrongly suggests manipulating the Definition of Done to artificially stabilize velocity.

Question 3

A new team member has joined the Scrum team and this significantly increased the velocity to 45 points per sprint, up from 30. However, the new team member is only temporary. As a Scrum Master, how would you manage this scenario?

Guide the team to consider this increase in velocity as temporary and not to base long-term product backlog forecasting on this elevated velocity. Consider the elevated velocity as the new normal and base future progression on this. Force the team to slow down to match the previous sprint velocity. Suggesting removing tasks from the backlog as the team is too fast.

Correct Answer: Guide the team to consider this increase in velocity as temporary and not to base long-term product backlog forecasting on this elevated velocity.

As a Scrum Master, one should guide the team to consider the increase in velocity as temporary. This is because the reason for the increased velocity is the addition of a new temporary member in the team. Therefore, basing the long term product backlog forecast on an elevated velocity which is expected to decrease in the future would not be a realistic approach. The other answers: considering the elevated velocity as the new normal, suggesting removing tasks from the backlog, and forcing the team to slow down do not align with the Agile and Scrum values of respect, openness, and realism.

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