Schedule Development Tools and Techniques

Correct Answer: The project risks are becoming more predictable but with higher expected impacts

In Monte Carlo simulation, when analyzing multiple runs, a decreasing standard deviation indicates that the outcomes are becoming more clustered around the mean, suggesting increased predictability in the results. When this is coupled with increasing mean values, it suggests that while the project's outcomes are becoming more predictable (less variable), the expected impacts or costs are trending higher. This combination points to a scenario where we have more certainty about the project's outcomes, but those outcomes are likely to be at a higher cost or impact level than initially anticipated. The other options are incorrect because: - Stabilizing risks would show both stable means and standard deviations, not increasing means - Shifting toward extreme scenarios would show increasing standard deviation, not decreasing - Computational drift would show random variations in both mean and standard deviation, not a consistent pattern

Correct Answer: Stratified Random Sampling

Stratified Random Sampling is the most efficient sampling method for Monte Carlo simulation in project risk analysis. Here's why: Stratified Random Sampling: - Divides the probability distribution into segments (strata) - Ensures samples are taken from each significant segment of the distribution - Maintains statistical accuracy while requiring fewer samples - Provides better coverage of the entire probability range - Reduces computational time by focusing on meaningful segments Why other options are incorrect: Sequential Probability Ratio Testing is complex and adds unnecessary computational overhead rather than reducing calculations. Systematic sampling with predetermined intervals may miss important variations in the distribution and can introduce bias. Periodic sampling with fixed intervals can miss critical events and variations, potentially leading to inaccurate results.

Correct Answer: The input variables have competing effects that create multiple possible outcomes

In Monte Carlo simulation analysis for nuclear power plant construction projects, oscillating peaks in the probability distribution indicate competing or interacting effects among the input variables that lead to multiple possible outcomes. This situation often occurs when different variables push the results in opposite directions, creating multiple probable scenarios or outcomes. For example, factors like resource availability might push completion times in one direction, while regulatory requirements pull in another direction. The other options are incorrect because: Periodic fluctuations based on seasonal patterns would create a more regular, cyclical distribution rather than distinct peaks. Requiring additional iterations would not explain the presence of multiple peaks - more iterations would only refine the existing distribution pattern. Mathematical transformations are not the solution, as the multiple peaks likely represent valid potential outcomes based on the actual project variables and their interactions.