Advanced Estimation Techniques

Scrum teams need accurate estimates to plan and deliver valuable product increments. The PSM I certification covers several advanced estimation techniques that help teams improve their forecasting abilities. Planning Poker represents one of the most popular techniques. Team members independently assign story points (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.) to product backlog items using cards. When estimates differ significantly, team members discuss their reasoning to reach consensus. This technique leverages collective wisdom while minimizing anchoring bias. T-shirt Sizing offers a simpler approach where items are categorized as XS, S, M, L, XL, or XXL. Teams later convert these sizes to numeric values if needed. This works well for quick initial estimates or large backlogs. The Bucket System involves placing items in "buckets" of similar complexity. Teams first establish reference stories for each bucket, then place new items alongside comparable stories. Relative Mass Valuation enables rapid estimation of many items. Team members physically arrange cards in a line from least to most complex, discussing placement as they go. Affinity Mapping groups similar items together based on complexity, often using a wall or board to visualize the groupings. Three-point estimation considers optimistic (O), most likely (M), and pessimistic (P) scenarios. The formula (O + 4M + P)/6 provides a weighted average that accounts for uncertainty. Team Estimation Game turns estimation into a collaborative activity where members take turns placing items in sequence by complexity, with others able to move cards they disagree with. Effective teams adapt these techniques to their context, maintaining transparency about their process. The key is consistency in relative sizing rather than committing to precise time estimates, enabling better sprint planning and reliable velocity tracking.

Scrum teams need accurate estimates to plan and deliver valuable product increments. The PSM I certification covers several advanced estimation techniques that help teams improve their forecasting ab…

Concepts covered: Relative Mass Valuation, Affinity Estimating, T-Shirt Sizes, Ideal Time, Bucket System, Monte Carlo Simulation, Planning Poker, Velocity Averaging, Wideband Delphi Technique, Parametric Estimating